Dabengwa, Ncube alliance shakes July 31 campaign

Southern Eye

By Njabulo Ncube

7 July 2013

THE MDC and Zapu election pact unveiled on Friday has added impetus for a grand coalition against President Robert Mugabe and his Zanu PF party ahead of the watershed June 31 elections.

Zapu leader Dumiso Dabengwa and his MDC counterpart Welshman Ncube told journalists in Bulawayo that the pact was a culmination of talks that began last December.

The pact will result in candidates from the two political parties working together and supporting each other during campaigns.

The two parties agreed that they would not discuss or enter into a pact or coalition with any other party other than with each other.

MDC and Zapu said despite the alliance, it remained the individual candidate’s prerogative to voluntarily withdraw from the harmonised elections and support a candidate from the other party.

Former Highlanders chairman Rodger Muhlwa, who was eyeing the Bulawayo East constituency on a Zapu ticket, was the first candidate to withdraw from the polls, making way for MDC’s candidate David Coltart.

Analysts yesterday said while the coalition was necessary to break Mugabe’s octopus-grip on power, Ncube and Dabengwa must rope in Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, who outpolled the 89-year-old Zanu PF leader in the March 2008 presidential election.

Tsvangirai was forced to withdraw from the runoff election by State-sponsored violence, which left more than 200 people dead and thousands displaced.

The analysts said the electoral pact would be all encompassing if it embraced the MDC-T.

But some analysts were quick to say Zimbabweans should be disabused of the notion that anything led by Ndebeles is tribal.

Dumisani Nkomo, the chief executive officer of Habakkuk Trust, who doubles up as political analyst, said a broader electoral pact including MDC-T would have been ideal.

“There is still a window of hope though slim, to include the MDC-T, which has been accused by some of being arrogant in its approach towards talks,” he said.

“A broader pact is still an option, but all parties should negotiate as equals and the big brother- small brother mentality has to stop as an alliance will be a win-win situation.”

He predicted that failure could result in a runoff as was the case in the last presidential polls, adding that this could be an opportunity for a pact on the presidential candidate.

“This time Ncube and Dabengwa would have more leverage as they hold the deciding vote.”

Effie Ncube, a Bulawayo-based analyst, said the coalition between MDC and Zapu was a step in the right direction, but doubted its impact.

“Whether the Ncube and Dabengwa pact will succeed, it is highly questionable,” he said.

“The one that will certainly do very well in the pending polls is the one where Tsvangirai will be involved.

“PM Tsvangirai is the real big deal as he is a major contributing factor to real change.”

Blessing Vava, an activist with the National Constitutional Assembly, said the pact was a strategic move to consolidate the Matabeleland vote ahead of the harmonised poll.

However, he was sceptical of its electoral chances if it did not involve Tsvangirai.

“It might be a warm-up to the grand coalition with the main MDC,” he said.

“The only way forward is for these parties to forge an alliance with Tsvangirai and support one candidate for the presidential vote if the coalition is going to mean anything. Otherwise this might be viewed as an ethnic coalition which might fail to get support in other parts of the country.”

He said as long as Tsvangirai was out of that coalition it would not get much support.

“Hate him or love him, Tsvangirai is an important player in any coalition to be formed against Mugabe, without him it’s as good as nothing,” Vava added.

“These two parties (MDC and Zapu) do not attract much support from across the country. They will only probably gain some percentages in Matabeleland largely because of the ethnic card.”

Paul Siwela, a 2002 losing presidential candidate, was dismissive of the coalition saying in had no chance of toppling Mugabe and Zanu PF.

“We have made it very clear that Mugabe is going to retain the presidency by hook or crook,” he said.

“These elections will be a farce, so this so-called coalition will not work. Mugabe is quite aware that he is dealing with political novices.”

Zapu pulled out of the 1987 unity accord with Zanu PF citing unfulfilled promises.