Coalition Fading At Each Turn

The Financial Gazette

By Ray Ndlovu

11 July 2013

THE emergence of coalitions days after the Constitutional Court upheld President Robert Mugabe’s proclamation of July 31 as the election date suggests that cracks remain wide and the prospect of their differences being resolved before the elections are slim.

Even if the differences were to be set aside for a while ahead of the plebiscite, it remains evident that the party leaders make up for strange bedfellows and their unity would still be fragile post the ballot.

Prime Minister (PM) Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T), Welshman Ncube of the smaller MDC formation, Dumiso Dabengwa of ZAPU, Simba Makoni of Mavambo/Kusile/Dawn (MKD) and Reketayi Semwayo of ZANU-Ndonga announced alliances among themselves which they hoped would enhance their chances at the polls.Ncube’s MDC and Dabengwa’s ZAPU broke the ice first last week by announcing that they had entered into a coalition with each other.

Their coalition is premised on lending support to each other’s Parliamentary candidates in constituencies where the other party may not have representation.

From a distance, Ncube’s MDC appears to have an upper hand over ZAPU in this arrangement as it enjoys more representation of candidates. The MDC is vying for 200 Parliamentary seats in contrast to ZAPU, which only has 50 parliamentary candidates nationwide.

As a goodwill gesture, some candidates have even stepped down to make way for perceived stronger candidates, as is the case with ZAPU’s Roger Muhlwa who stepped down for the MDC’s David Coltart for  Bulawayo East constituency.

In what is largely seen by political observers as a veiled effort to pull the wool over the eyes of their supporters and maintain their endorsements at party level to run for the presidency, the MDC-ZAPU alliance allows for Ncube and Dabengwa to individually contest the presidency.

Misgivings have already been expressed by political observers who are wary that the MDC-ZAPU alliance, which does not include the MDC-T, could also threaten the dominance that has been enjoyed by PM Tsvangirai’s MDC-T in the three Matabele-land provinces in the past 10 years and take away crucial votes from him in the region.

On Monday, it was the PM’s turn to announce a coalition with Makoni’s MKD and ZANU-Ndonga, which left Ncube’s MDC and ZAPU out in the cold over what they said was “failure to agree” on issues.

Makoni and Semwayo will jointly back the premier for the presidency unlike Ncube and Dabengwa who are running for the presidency on separate tickets.

While backing PM Tsvangirai is meant to boost votes, the choice of Makoni and ZANU-Ndonga is widely perceived to be minuscule.

McDonald Lewanika, director of Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, said the fringe political parties were “unknowns” in terms of their electoral strengths. “Their coalescing with the two MDC formations separately does not have the kind of thunderous impact that the two MDCs coming together would have had,” said Lewanika.

Makoni’s MKD secured a small fraction of the votes in the last harmonised elections of 2008 and failed to win a single parliamentary seat.

Since the last election, MKD has been lacklustre on the political stage, re-emerging on the eve of the election.

On the other hand, ZANU-Ndonga has slipped from its heydays in the 1990’s of once being a formidable opposition party under the leadership of the late Ndabaningi Sithole and has not taken part in any electoral contest since the turn of the new millennium.

This has left many observers in doubt over its ability to adapt to the prevailing political environment after being absent for so long.

Trevor Maisiri, a senior analyst from the Johannesburg offices of the International Crisis Group, said Makoni had in his favour technocratic skills and experience in government, private sector and in the southern Africa region which could be used as a draw-card to “elites” and voters.

As the clock ticks towards elections, and parties roll out their election manifestos, the prospects of some sort of unity continues to fade at each turn.

Khanyile Mlotshwa, a political commentator, however, said a single coalition remained a possibility and all the parties could come together in the event of a run-off vote to back a single presidential candidate.

“Under the present circumstances none will get over 50 percent of the votes. It is possible that these two coalitions are strategic in order to surprise ZANU-PF, while giving voters an array of choices,” said Mlotshwa.
Rashweat Mukundu, chairperson of the Zimbabwe Democracy Institute, is of the view that splitting of votes by groups opposing one dominant and entrench-ed political party and system is always suicidal as it essentially hands over victory to that party, in this case ZANU-PF.

In MDC-T strongholds that include Matabeleland, Manicaland and parts of Midlands, Mukundu said ZANU-PF could potentially make a comeback and pick some seats as a result of the split votes between the two MDCs.
“Personal egos are trumping common good when political parties with everything similar except personal names and addresses fail to agree on working together,” observed Mukundu.

Vivid Gwede, a political commentator, said the failure to form a single coalition to stand against President Mugabe would come back to haunt the opposition parties.

He said all over the world governing parties benefit from such lack of common purpose by the opposition.

“It is ideal that they unite and find common understanding before the election for another reason and that is if they do not do so it may be unavoidable that the country will have a hung Parliament,” said Gwede.

“Such a situation will still mean a coalition will still be needed to form a government. From the look of things, no matter how much the political leaders try to avoid it, ultimately there is no way out of working together.”