Summary of a speech by David Coltart – “Prospects for, and challenges to, transition in Zimbabwe”
UCT Law Faculty
16 May 2011
In 2008 there was hyperinflation, cholera, and a country in collapse (almost impossible to lawfully run any institution and survive). Many argue we should have allowed it to become a ‘failed state; but I do not believe it would have come to that, the generals could have kept the core running on plentiful diamond money and today, we would be in a worse situation..
It was still a difficult decision to engage with the GPA and in the GNU, to take the portfolio. I understand that it was and is easier to be absolutist about such decisions when looking at or engaging with the situation from outside. BUT I was CONVINCED THEN, AND am EVEN MORE CONVINCED TODAY, that it was the only NON-VIOLENT option.
There is no guarantee of a happy ending. The situation in Zimbabwe is very fragile, similar to South Africa in the early 1990’s. There are hardliners trying to subvert the status quo – those behind the increasing violence seen this year – and they could be pushed to the assassination of a high profile person in order to ensure an election this year while Mugabe can be its figurehead.
But there is still no other viable option; no realistic prospect of a free and fair election, or of the West intervening, a scenario which we would want to avoid at all costs.
The GPA is on track. It is a miracle that it has survived, given that the MDCs are in bed with people who have tried to kill us, who have tortured us. Yet here we are 2 yrs in.
Tendai Biti, a greatt friend and a fellow lawyer, doing good job. The economy is growing, even tobacco is up 20% in the last yr. It is not all perfect; agriculture generally in total chaos. But cholera has been dealt with, clinics and hospitals have re-opened.
In Education, two years ago there were 80 000 teachers on strike and 7000 schools closed; a 1:15 text book ratio. Cabinet agreed to my declaring an amnesty and 15 000 of the 20 000 teachers that we lost are back, schools are open and the textbook ratio is 1:1. We are about to embark on a similar programme in senior schools for a 1:1 ratio in six core subjects.
Sport is on the up, and not just in cricket.
Media. Two independent newspapers, one daily, are back on the streets. We thus have a vigorous print media, arguably better than at any other time. The electronic media, though, remains ZANU-PF controlled.
The Constitution-making process should have been completed but it is vaguely on track, despite lack of funding and political shenanigans.
Cabinet meetings are hardly cordial but functional; we debate strenuously, reach compromises, and we are taking the country forward on balance.
There are new electoral laws in process (the new ZEC includes UCT alumnus Geoff Feltoe; it has had its difficulties but is making progress, slowly). The Human Rights Commission, under another UCT alumnus, Reg Austin, is under-funded but he is working to give it teeth.
This is not rhetoric, it is based on fact.
There are, however, three broad challenges
1.ZANU PF hard liners (believe a minority in Cabinet and even in the Central Committee and Politburo) who are 20 years younger than Mugabe. Some are guilty of crimes against humanity, some are engaged in corruption and some fall into both categories. They know that if the GPA is fully implemented, there will be meaningful change and they will be brought to account. Therefore they want to derail the process. They want an election and are up to every trick in the book (eg preventing vehicles for Tsvangarai coming in) and they are the authors of virtually all bad stories coming out of Zimbabwe at present.
The majority in the Central Committee and Parliamentary Caucus seem to back the Mujuru faction; she is clearly a moderate; DC sees her more even-handed approach week in and week out as she seeks reconciliation in cabinet positions.
2. Western indifference and western lack of finesse eg intransigence on sanctions.
Had the West not embraced the transition in SA it might never have worked.
Sadly the West, in particular the UK and USA, are so sceptical about the GPA, (and there is much to be sceptical about), that they have held the process back. Eg The textbook fund which has resulted in stability and growing hope (nothing so tense as parents with a lack of belief in the education system). Whereas German govt funded $18m ,the USA only $1m and UK £1m.
I understand the scepticism but I believe that if they had come in more whole heartedly it may have taken the process further.
And there is the reluctance to budge on sanctions. The Sanctions  debate has become pivotal (David’s view is that Sanctions are beyond their sell-by date); Sanctions have not stopped one detention or politicians amassing huge wealth and yet, ironically, Sanctions are being used by the hardliners to justify non-implementation and are being used by ZANU PF to dig in their heels.
The problem is perhaps that restrictive measures/sanctions have become domestic issues for both the USA and UK and thus, neither country has the scope to alter their position in the service of a workable solution to the Zimbabwe situation. This was made clear in relation to a sports issue recently. In terms of cricket, Zimbabwe is a domestic issue for the UK and so the Irish came out but the Scots, having agreed to come, were blocked and at the highest level – by the PM and Foreign Minister
3.SADC’s weakness
Zuma has been a breath of fresh air. He and the ANC have tried to do the right thing. The danger in SADC is that the non-democratic governments like those in Angola and Swaziland, may still hold sway and thus, not hold Zuma to account in terms of his leadership of the ongoing mediation.
The Constitutional Process is a 10 stage process and Zimbabwe is only at stage 3. The thematic Committees are currently considering the over 600 0000 submissions from the outreach meetings;(Z-PF is pushing for the inclusion of issues on a quantity only basis; the MDC is insisting on a qualitative approach too). Then there needs to be a Referendum and the document needs to be ratified by Parliament. At this stage, even a referendum will require tens of millions of $ to get the voters’ roll updated. To move from there to an election will involve decisions and changes based on the new constitution including whether the electoral system will be PR or Westminster based, who is eligible to vote etc. There is no way that Zimbabwe will be able to achieve all of that this year.
To date SADC has insisted that the CP be completed. There is broad consensus in Zim that it is too early to have an election. Commerce has pleaded for a delay (business only just recovering). DC believes that elections will be this time next year and that the result may well be a coalition.
The drafting of the Constitution needs to be thorough. The GPA process is likely to produce something better than the present constitution rather than a ‘perfect’ constitution ie it will be a stepping stone to something better.
Conclusion: Zim is at a very fragile juncture. RM has no peers; cabinet defers to him; no-one comes close to his intellectual prowess; for the hardliners, this means that they have to have an election this year, because it will be harder for them to win an election the more time goes by considering Mugabe’s age and potential health problems. Their brand is RM, to the exclusion of anyone else. And the age of the president means that each month that goes by is critical. They will not win if he is unable to contest the election. Morgan has similarly been branded over the last 12 yrs, albeit to a lesser extent.
As every year goes by there is greater inter-dependence in SADC; our neighbours know that the next influx of refugees will not be the highly educated people that you see in positions across South Africa, but it will be the poorest Zimbabweans, and it will cause chaos; ie Zim is to SADC what Greece has been to the EC!
My hope is that SADC does the right thing, that we muddle through the CP and elections only take place mid 2012.
Q & A
Hardliners driven by fear of retribution or power?
Both: Hardliners are obsessed with wealth that comes from power as well as afraid that they may have to face legal retribution for the crimes against humanity that they have committed.
Rule of law?
Even the magistracy has slipped; Much like the electronic media. ZANU-PF have done their damndest to retain control of justice system. The Supreme court is still handing down poor judgements. It is rule by law.
Future of the SADC Tribunal?
DC suggested that this question be turned back to the Law Faculties in SA; The Zim Min of Justice certainly pays no regard to its decisions.
Using Education to reconcile?
Already doing this. Z_PF resistant to change in History curriculum which is a great propaganda platform, but suprising support within CDU even to change.
Diamond money?
‘Not haemorrhaging like two years ago but still bleeding.’.
The good news is that in excess of $100m.has come into the economy; the bad news is that Zim had gross receipts of over $300m, with one company making a clean profit of $70m on $4m investment.
Last SADC summit surprising?
In Livingstone ZANU/PF were caught, to coin a Scottish phrase, ‘with their troosers doon.’ They didn’t lobby the other states as MDC did; have now done so, and are now lobbying furiously that Zim stable eough and the Constitution process can be short circuited.
To quote ‘we can write it in a few days.’
Is RM key? What will have changed this time next year?
DC does not know anything more than the speculation about cancer, but clearly he is aging. He’s 87, and each month that goes by, he has less energy.
If there were elections now, it would be a close contest between RM & MT, but if it is someone else and MT, MT would win hands down.
Is West unfair in its scepticism on aid money going in to Z-PF hands?
DC set up an Education Trust Fund, managed by UNICEF, chaired by DC. Not a cent went to govt. UNICEF managed the tender – Zim publishers,printers and distributors (with biggest print contract going to a firm in Paarl); DC villified for it not going to a Z=PF supplier, but its quote was several thousand of dollars too high.
UNICEF see the Zim book project as one of its most successful worldwide.
Other projects in Zimbabwe are also following this model.
On Reconciliation, does the country not have to go way back in its history?
The roots of the need to reconcile don’t go back just to 1980 but also to 1890; however MDC position is that any Truth Commission has to start in 1965 because the roots of the gukuruhandi are found in white tyranny.
The  Organ on Healing is not only underfunded, but  also lost of Gibson Sibanda (an outstanding political figure).