Mail and Guardian
By Jason Moyo
January 16 2009
The future of Zimbabwe’s power-sharing agreement will likely be decided on
Sunday when the national executive of the opposition Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) meets to decide whether to join President Robert Mugabe in a
unity government.
Meanwhile, Parliament is expected to resume sitting on Tuesday; a key matter
on the agenda is the draft legislation that would enable the formation of
the new government. There are three scenarios that may play out in the weeks
to come.
Talks resume and a power-sharing deal is implemented
Amid rising tension and increasing rhetoric from both sides, the prospect of
an agreement being reached looks least likely.
Mugabe has declined Morgan Tsvangirai’s call for a meeting, while hawkish
members of the MDC appear to have the upper hand going into Sunday’s crucial
national executive meeting. Sharing power remains a hugely unpopular option
for both sides, but some hope that the absence of any real alternative for
either side will force them into a partnership. Neither side wants to appear
to be the spoiler.
If a government of unity is agreed upon, the immediate priority would be
economic recovery.
South Africa has released humanitarian aid to Zimbabwe already, but a more
substantial financial aid package, backed by the entire region, would be
required to address the worst of the suffering.
Crucially, the United States and the United Kingdom have declared that they
will oppose any deal that involves Mugabe. The MDC will therefore be under
huge pressure to play a key role in winning back Western donor support,
which will be crucial to the survival of the new government.
Even if a deal is reached, doubts will remain over whether the new
government will last. Members of the new administration will need to agree
on what will have to be a comprehensive programme of social and economic
reform, but mistrust between the two sides runs deep.
Mugabe forms the government unilaterally
The combined opposition, which is in control of the key lower house of
Parliament, would make it impossible for Mugabe’s government to function. He
would therefore have to call a fresh election to attempt to regain a
parliamentary majority. Mugabe has already told his party to prepare for
this possibility.
Such elections would most probably be held under conditions similar to the
June run-off, which the MDC boycotted, partly in protest against the ruling
party’s brutal campaign of violence.
Not only would Western governments withhold aid to a Mugabe government, they
would devise new ways to undermine his regime. This would likely push Mugabe
into an even more intransigent position and speed up the pace of economic
collapse.
Mugabe appears to be preparing himself to go it alone, canvassing allies for
funding.
Mugabe insiders have, in recent weeks, been talking about an aid package
they claim their leader has up his sleeve. Mugabe has used his annual
vacation to visit the Far East and is said to have scheduled a visit to
Russia. His spokesperson, George Charamba, confirms that Mugabe is visiting
“friendly nations” in an effort to secure financial support.
There have been suggestions of a possible $5-billion package, although even
Mugabe loyalists doubt this is possible given the global financial crisis.
MDC drops out of talks
Public comments last week by a senior Tsvangirai adviser who said the MDC
has the option to wait for the country to “crash and burn” dramatised the
re-emergence of a radical core of the MDC that has always opposed
compromise.
But others in the opposition doubt that sitting it out and waiting for a big
crash is a good strategy.
David Coltart, a prominent opposition senator, warned that a total collapse
of Zimbabwe would see “the more radical elements within the military seizing
power, which in turn could see Zimbabwe degenerate into even worse forms of
anarchy than exist at present”.
But the hawks have been strengthened in their position by a spate of
abductions of Mugabe opponents and a declaration by the US and Britain that
they will not support any agreement that includes Mugabe.
For now, at least, the MDC’s options are limited.
Should the MDC pull out of the talks, its next step would likely be to carry
the struggle to Parliament. But after the expulsion of an MDC MP this week
for having forged signatures on her nomination papers, the Tsvangirai
faction of the MDC and Zanu-PF now have an equal number of seats in the
lower house.
Only a combined opposition could challenge Zanu-PF in Parliament. But even
then, Mugabe could dissolve Parliament.