Zimdaily
12 January 2009
ZIMBABWE – HARARE – Senator David Coltart of the Arthur Mutambara-led MDC says the main MDC must join government saying there is no other viable non-violent option open to Zimbabweans.
“The combined MDC should join the transitional government under protest and reserve its right to withdraw from the government if need be,” Coltart said.
It is exactly four months since the September 15 Global Political Agreement to set up an all-inclusive Government was signed by the principals of Zimbabwe’s three main political parties, President Mugabe’s Zanu-PF, the main MDC led by Morgan Tsvangirai and the Mutambara faction.
The agreement was hailed by the SADC summit a few days later, but most analysts agreed that it lacked a time-frame and was riddled with contradictory statements.
There were far too many issues left undecided, and a whole series of subsequent negotiations have still not settled them.
Coltart said: “In short, there is no alternative but to press for the September agreement to be implemented, warts and all.”
Coltart said as bad as the agreement is, there was no other viable, non-violent option open to Zimbabweans.
He said an appeal to the African Union or the UN against what the SADC has arranged and endorsed, will be fruitless.
Critics say the Mutambara faction is desperate to get into government because its leader
had no claim whatsoever to be deputy Prime Minister given that he did not contest the presidential election and also lost parliamentary elections in Zengeza, where he was thoroughly drubbed by the main MDC’s Collin Gwiyo.
The MDC has refused to join the government as a junior partner and efforts to get SADC to resolve the outstanding issues have been futile.
At its October 27 extra-ordinary summit, SADC sidestepped issues raised by the main MDC and narrowed the dispute to the Home Affairs ministry, which the regional bloc recommended should be jointly run by Zanu-PF and the MDC, while Mugabe retained exclusive control of the army and the intelligence despite losing elections.
MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai described that resolution as a “nullity” and branded SADC leaders “cowards.”
Coltart however insisted that there was no other way to go around the problem saying the issue has failed to be tackled even at the highest level of international diplomacy. He said the US and Britain’s attempts to raise Zimbabwe’s humanitarian crisis in the UN Security Council flopped. Russia and South Africa vetoed action on Zimbabwe.
“While strong statements made by (British Premier) Gordon Brown, (US President) George W Bush, (German chancellor) Angela Merkel and (South African Nobel Peace Laureate) Desmond Tutu have called for the removal of Robert Mugabe, there is little prospect that their rhetoric will translate into action,” Coltart said.
“There is no stomach in the West for military intervention and many of us opposed to Mugabe would not support such a policy.”
Coltart said a spontaneous uprising was also unlikely.
“Zimbabwe does not have a pressure-cooker environment such as existed in East Germany where young people, usually the vanguard of any uprising, are forced to remain in the country,” he said.
“Zimbabwe has two safety valves – Botswana and South Africa – to which most of the young opponents have escaped. Most people left in the country are physically weakened by the collapse of the economy and the humanitarian crisis.”
Coltart noted that the newly-created office of Prime Minister, to be given to Tsvangirai, will have huge de facto power.
He said the success of the transitional government will depend on the amount of international assistance that can be raised, noting however that there was so much disdain for Mugabe that there is no prospect of any assistance coming through his door.
“The International Monetary Fund, World Bank, European Union and other governments and institutions will want to channel all their aid through the office of Prime Minister,” Coltart added.
“MDC also will hold the Finance ministry, giving Tsvangirai enormous power and an effective veto. If he decides to withdraw from the transitional government, aid will dry up at the same time.”
But the US government and its key allies has stated that it will not provide any financial support to a government with Mugabe at the helm.
Coltart said Zanu PF’s fixation with controlling the coercive ministries has resulted in it ceding control to the combined MDC of nearly all the service ministries, such as health and education, likely to have the biggest impact on the lives of Zimbabweans.
“If the MDC improves services, which should not be too difficult given that most government departments have all but collapsed, it will increase its support,” Coltart said.
He said the agreement obliges the transitional government to liberalise the political environment and to start, immediately, a process of constitutional reform that must culminate in a new democratic constitution being enacted within 18 months.
Both Sadc and the AU have guaranteed the agreement including these provisions, he said.
“In addition, for all the criticisms levelled against SADC governments in the past few months, they have demonstrated a commitment to enforce all the terms of the agreement and it will be in regional governments’ self-interest to ensure reform continues,” he said.
Coltart said Zanu PF was now a shadow of its former self. Mugabe turns 85 in February and is increasingly out of touch with reality.
“He has retained some of his patronage system, ironically, because the transitional government has not been set up, but once it is he will be even weaker,” he said.
Constitution Amendment No. 19 Bill, which gives legal teeth to the September agreement, has just been gazette and Coltart claims by mid-January it should be passed into law, making the process of transition almost irreversible.
But the main MDC has threatened to block it unless other key issues are also settled, namely, the continuing violence, the fair allocation of ministries, key government appointments and the functions and composition of the National Security Council.
Mugabe on the other hand is refusing to budge.
Infact, the prospects for an inclusive government being set up look less and less promising after Mugabe’s rhetoric at the end of last year, with Tsvangirai holding out for a genuine share of authority, citing the recent evidence of the torture of MDC cadres and civil society activists accused of supporting the MDC.
“The wider international community including the IMF, World Bank, UN, EU and the US, is going to have to give the agreement a chance by helping to stabilise Zimbabwe’s economy and address the humanitarian crisis,” Coltart said.
“While there is understandable scepticism about the agreement, it is important that these concerns do not become a self-fulfilling prophecy. One thing is certain. If the MDC is unable to improve the lives of Zimbabweans, the agreement will fail and the region will be further destabilised.”
He continued: “Some argue that if the MDC waits a while the Mugabe regime will collapse. This is a possibility but a huge gamble. There is every chance that in the event of Mugabe losing power some of the more radical elements within the military may seize power, which in turn could see Zimbabwe degenerate into even worse forms of anarchy than exist at present.
“Furthermore, a wait-and-see policy will not address the extreme humanitarian crisis that needs to be resolved immediately if the lives of potentially hundreds of thousands are to be saved.”
Zimbabwe is in the vortex of a perfect humanitarian storm; an unprecedented convergence of AIDS, poverty, hyperinflation, malnutrition, a regime that does not care and, now, cholera. And the humanitarian crisis has its roots in the political crisis, Coltart said.
“There is no doubt that the agreement is seriously flawed,” Coltart said. “The powers of the Prime Minister are weak and the prospects of securing consensus in a Cabinet in which the combined MDC factions have a narrow majority are limited. Scepticism in the West may also result in limited support for the transitional government.”
Coltart acknowledged that Zanu-PF has demonstrated extreme bad faith since the signing of the agreement and is unlikely to change even once the transitional government has been established.
There has been a surge in abductions of human rights and political activists. Zanu PF also retains all the coercive ministries, including defence, the secret police and the police.
“Zimbabweans suffer from such a victim mentality that there is a danger that in focusing so much on the negative aspects of the agreement we will ignore the real opportunities that the agreement provides to transform Zimbabwe from an autocracy to a democracy,” he said, adding joining government was the only option available to the main MDC.