The Nation (Nairobi)
5 May 2008
By Kitsepile Nyathi in Harare
Even if President Mugabe bludgeons his way into a victory in the runoff he will find governing during a sixth term untenable, warns Zimbabwean opposition legislator and legal expert, Mr David Coltart.
He spoke as it finally dawned on election weary Zimbabweans that a second round of voting was now necessary after the country’s electoral body on Friday announced the long awaited outcome of the March 29 presidential elections.
The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) released the results over a month after the polls were held giving opposition leader Mr Morgan Tsvangirai the lead, but not the simple majority needed to avoid a runoff with Mr Mugabe, the second-place finisher.
Mr Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) rejected those results as fraudulent and on Saturday held off a decision on its participation in the second round.
The opposition has threatened that it will not take part in the runoff because it believes that it won outright.
Legal experts say the MDC has no option but to contest the runoff, which must be held after 21 days as a decision not to take part would automatically hand victory to Mr Mugabe.
Analysts warn the run off will not be a run in the park for the opposition as evidenced by the current wave of political violence in rural areas that human rights groups and aid agencies say has killed several people and forced hundreds to flee their homes. Rights groups and the MDC say the violence is mainly aimed at opposition activists or people who voted for the opposition and is designed to intimidate them into voting for Mr Mugabe in a second round.
But some analysts say if the 84 year old manages to use violence to win the runoff he would not be able to rule the country with the iron fist that has characterised his 28 year-old rule.
Mr Coltart who is also the legal affairs secretary of the smaller faction of the MDC believes the end to Mr Mugabe’s tyrannical rule is near regardless of the outcome of the next round of voting.
He said the veteran ruler’s unbridled power had been already been shaken by the ruling Zanu PF’s defeat in parliamentary elections.
The two MDC factions now control parliament with 109 seats against Zanu PF’s 97 in the 210 member assembly – the first time the opposition has controlled parliament since independence.
“The political logjam has been finally broken,” Mr Coltart said. “And as is the case when a logjam is broken on a swollen river it is going to be tumultuous but Mugabe’s dictatorship is coming to an end.”
The new balance of power hammered at the watershed polls meant that the opposition will select a speaker of parliament from its own ranks and for the first time it is in a position to block any legislation that Mr Mugabe might try to rail road through the assembly. “He will need us to push through the national budget for example,” Mr Coltart observed.
“Mr Mugabe will also not be able to rule by decree because even legislation introduced through the notorious Presidential powers must be ratified through parliament before they come into force.
“That’s a harsh legal reality that Mugabe faces even if he tries to rig his way into a sixth term.”
But a more unsettling reality for Zanu PF hardliners who are reportedly pushing for the second round because they do not want a compromise with the MDC is that the opposition just needs to find 30 ruling party MPs willing to impeach Mr Mugabe.
According to Zimbabwe’s constitution, a two thirds majority is needed to impeach the president and this adds up to 140 MPs. Amid growing disaffection in the ruling party ranks, dramatised by former Finance Minister, Dr Simba Makoni’s decision to run for the presidency in the elections, finding dissenting MPs in Zanu PF will not be that difficult for the MDC.
Mr Coltart added: “We don’t know how many Zanu PF MPs support Makoni or Tsvangirai so finding the 30 MPs to support the impeachment will not be a difficult job to do.”
Besides, the political intricacies, Mr Mugabe would be confronted by an inclement economic environment.
With inflation galloping towards 200, 000 per cent and neighbouring South Africa and Botswana who have been credited with keeping Zimbabwe’s already battered economy limping are showing signs they are no longer prepared to support an unpopular regime in Harare.
Botswana’s new President Seretse Ian Khama has already banned the export of fuel in bulk by Zimbabwe’s informal traders who have kept the troubled country’s cars on the roads since fuel stations ran dry around 2000.
Meanwhile, the MDC is still undecided on whether Tsvangirai will participate in the runoff. On Saturday it called on the nation’s neighbours to verify the vote count from the first round saying Friday’s results were fraudulent.
Brutal campaign
Mr Tsvangirai’s deputy Ms Thokozani Khupe said the party still believed a runoff was unnecessary, maintaining the opposition leader won outright on March 29.
“We still need to be convinced before we participate in a runoff,” Ms Khuphe said.
International observers have questioned whether a runoff would be legitimate, given the violence the opposition has faced. The opposition’s top leaders, including secretary general Mr Tendai Biti and Mr Tsvangirai, have been staying out of Zimbabwe for fear of arrest by security forces who have vowed that the opposition will rule the country even if it wins elections.
The New York-based Human Rights Watch said “the ruling ZANU-PF party, the army and so-called war veterans have conducted a brutal state-sponsored campaign of violence, torture and intimidation against (opposition) activists and supporters.”
Not guaranteed
But Mr Coltart who led research into the 1980s massacres in southern Zimbabwe blamed on government forces during the 1980s said despite the violence Mr Mugabe was not guaranteed of victory.
“I have information from credible sources, a group of doctors which says 600 people have been hospitalised throughout the country because of the ongoing violence,” he said.
“The violence does not guarantee that Mugabe will win the elections because we have a scenario where in 1985 the people of Matabeleland voted overwhelmingly for the opposition despite the violence unleashed by the army.” An estimated 20 000 people were killed in Matabeleland and Midlands, which were opposition strongholds in the 1980 at the hands of the North Korean trained army unit.