Independent On Line
August 12 2007 at 10:56AM
By Peta Thornycroft
President Thabo Mbeki seems likely to go to the Southern Africa
Development Community summit in Lusaka on Thursday unable to claim much
progress on the Zimbabwe crisis.
Unless there is an unlikely and last-minute breakthrough between the
Zanu-PF and opposition Movement for Democratic Change, Mbeki will tell SADC
that Zimbabwe will not have a new constitution ahead of national elections
next March.
Instead, Mbeki is expected to tell his peers that any reforms will
have to emerge from an amendment to Zimbabwe’s independence constitution.
Mbeki was appointed by SADC to mediate between Zanu-PF and the MDC at
a summit in Dar es Salaam in March, two weeks after MDC leader Morgan
Tsvangirai and colleagues were savagely beaten by police.
At the start of the negotiations, a draft constitution hammered out in
secret between the MDC and Zanu-PF in 2004 was used as the foundation to try
to resolve disagreements.
But on the eve of the second round of talks last month, President
Robert Mugabe made it clear he would never agree to a new constitution
before elections next March.
His two negotiators, Labour Minister Nicholas Goche and Justice
Minister Patrick Chinamasa, failed to turn up for the scheduled talks on
July 7/8.
Nevertheless, the two teams from Zanu-PF and MDC had already
undertaken assignments from SA facilitators to isolate points of
disagreement in that draft constitution.
Last weekend, when the two Zanu-PF negotiators finally turned up in
Pretoria and met the two MDC secretary generals, Tendai Biti and Welshman
Ncube, it had become clear that a face-saving mechanism for Mugabe had to be
reached if there was going to be any progress at all.
They had to abandon talks on a new constitution. Any reforms would
have to be accommodated within the 18th constitutional amendment due to be
debated when parliament resumes in Harare on August 21.
Political sources close to the negotiations are not optimistic Mugabe
will agree to substantial changes.
Zanu-PF’s proposal to SA mediators on a way out of the crisis has no
political content beyond constantly reiterating that Britain is entirely to
blame for the crisis in Zimbabwe, and so the solution rests with Whitehall,
not reform of obnoxious laws.
The 18th constitutional amendment, which has already been gazetted,
would facilitate simultaneous parliamentary and presidential elections,
expand parliamentary seats, and would give parliament power to appoint a
successor should Mugabe retire or die in office.
The MDC, political sources point out, is not an equal partner in the
negotiations as Zanu-PF is backed by extraordinary state power, while the
opposition is the principal victim of Mugabe’s repression.
“It’s now up to the MDC. The ball is in their court to see what they
can do with the 18th constitutional amendment,” said Mugabe’s former
information minister Jonathan Moyo, now an independent MP.
Even if the MDC and Zanu-PF reach some accommodation, little time is
left. Zimbabwe will go into election mode in early December.
It could begin even earlier if the fractured ruling party does not
agree that Mugabe will be its candidate in the presidential poll. If that
happens then Zanu-PF may call an unscheduled congress to elect new office
bearers, including a presidential candidate.
MDC MP David Coltart said on Friday: “I think Zanu-PF is just playing, and they
will not agree to the substantial changes we want. Mbeki has been outflanked
by Mugabe who has never had any intention of relinquishing power or even a
portion of it. Mugabe knows he has to hang on with grim determination even
if his actions result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of
Zimbabweans.”
If electoral reforms are inconsequential, the MDC has one trick up its
sleeve – to deny Mugabe undisputed election victory which he craves for his
legacy and re-entry to the international community by boycotting the polls.
This article was originally published on page 10 of Cape Argus on
August 12, 2007