The Third Chamber
During discussions in The Third Chamber in 2003 Zimbabwe was often used as a negative example when it came to democracy and good governance. The media were often victim to censorship, elections were manipulated and food relief was used as a political weapon. For the last few months the country has been out of the international spotlights. How is the situation in Zimbabwe at this moment?
We asked David Coltart, MP on behalf of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). He has commented on the situation in his country on the website of The Third Chamber before.
Recently a trial has started against Philip Chiyangwa, businessman and MP on behalf of the governing Zanu-PF. He was accused of illegal conduct in obstructing police investigations into the corrupt activities of money market fund managers. Some observers see his trial as a signal that President Robert Mugabe is starting to take the fight against corruption seriously. How serious do you think we must take this trial?
“I’m afraid the trial is mainly a smokescreen, a diversion for a greater crackdown against the opposition. It might also play a part in a power struggle within the Zanu-PF. Whatever it is, smokescreen or power struggle, there is no way that Chiyangwa will end up with an effective jail sentence. If he is convicted at all, it won’t be more than a symbolic sentence.
President Mugabe is not getting any younger. Is there any pressure from within his party to step down or will he himself decide when the time has come?
“That is difficult to say. I have no doubt that he desires to see out the end of his term. He will only step down if forced to do so by a combination of international and domestic pressure. The question remains of course: will it succeed to build up such pressure that he doesn’t have a choice? He won’t step down during this term of his own free will.”
In October 2003 you thought that Zimbabwe’s neighbouring countries, especially South Africa, could not ignore the “problem Zimbabwe” very much longer, in order not to lose their credibility. How do you look upon the role of South African President Thabo Mbeki now?
“I’m much less positive than I was only a few months ago. Mbeki will only speak out if it starts affecting, visibly, the South African economy or if he deems silence detrimental to his election campaign. Both are unlikely and Mbeki will do everything to avoid having to do this. I think Mbeki’s credibility has already been badly damaged – he has failed on the two major issues of his first term – namely Aids and Zimbabwe.”
The food situation in Zimbabwe is disastrous. Is this completely due to the “land reforms” or are there also reasons for which the government is not to blame?
“The UN World Food Program recently raised their estimate of those needing food from 5 million to 7 million. So there is a threatening famine, because it is far from certain that the WFP can help all these people. Fortunately, aid organisations are more alert controlling the distribution of food and therefore it is harder for the regime to use aid as a political weapon. The agricultural problems are mainly caused by the chaotic “land reforms”: much of the land lies barren, crops have not been planted and many of the experienced farmers and farm workers have left. The situation was compounded by erratic rains, but not drought.”
“Unfortunately, I have to conclude that the situation is far worse than a few months ago and I am not optimistic for the foreseeable future.”