Legal Resource Foundation, Bulawayo
Zimbabwe is passing through the darkest chapter of its history in the run up to the 2000 elections. The economy, which has been battered by inept ZANU(PF) rule and corruption over the last few years, may well melt down in the next few weeks. There is no foreign currency. Factories and other businesses are laying people off. And now to compound all the pre-existing problems ZANU(PF) has engineered massive pre-electoral disturbances, violence, murder and general mayhem centered on the land problem in an effort to divert attention away from the disastrous state of the economy and to intimidate the growing numbers of those who support the Movement for Democratic Change. It is now clear that there is a Third Force, crafted by Mugabe and his cronies which is designed to intimidate the electorate into either not voting at all, or voting for ZANU(PF).
The result has been the dramatic loss of confidence in the future by the electorate. Minorities fear that ethnic cleansing could begin shortly. There is a real fear that the Police at best have looked the other way recently and at worst have acted as accomplices to murder. As a result farmers have left their land and hundreds are so unsettled by what is going on that they have packed their suitcases (to enable a quick exit) and are making plans to emigrate in the short to medium term.
In view of all that is happening can there be any hope for the future or is Zimbabwe sentenced to an inevitable slide into total anarchy? I believe that there are six reasons why there is still a lot of hope for Zimbabwe.
1. The violence is a consequence of ZANU(PF)’s fear of losing the election
I am not surprised by the events of the last few weeks, indeed months ago I warned that we had a long, hard and rocky election road to travel on. When there was euphoria over the Referendum result I warned that ZANU(PF) would fight dirty. Those of us who lived through the Gukurahundi in Matabeleland know the true nature of this beast and the lengths Mugabe will go to achieve a political objective.
Ironically the increased ferocity of the violence is in itself a source of hope because the increase, both in “quality” and quantity, is an indication that ZANU(PF) is increasingly frightened of losing the election. I believe that the violence has been deliberately notched up over the last few weeks. When the farms were first invaded the thinking was clearly that invasions alone would deter farmers and labour from backing the MDC. As we know they did not and if anything support for the MDC grew. The violence was then taken up a notch (beatings and humiliation of farmers started and farms were laid under siege) but that didn’t work and the MDC continued to spread. A nightmare scenario was being created for ZANU(PF): it knew that it had lost the towns but was counting on winning the rural areas and securing a majority – with this development it faced losing outright. Hence in the last two weeks we have seen violence being taken up one more notch with the murder and torture of farmers. The point is simple: whilst the increase in violence is appalling we need to remember that it would not have happened had ZANU(PF) felt secure. That the violence continues now against farm workers and communal villagers is an indication that ZANU(PF) itself knows it can still lose the election and in that there is hope, ironic as it is.
2. The MDC horse has already bolted
Had the vicious campaign of violence commenced 6 weeks ago there would be little comfort in making the first point mentioned above. There is no doubt that whilst 6 weeks ago the vast majority of Zimbabweans were fed up with ZANU(PF) rule, they did not know that there was a viable alternative in the form of the MDC. I recall that during the time of the Referendum I received reports from several rural areas to the effect that the there was no MDC name or election symbol recognition in those areas. From the same areas after the Easter break I have now received reports of widespread MDC name and symbol recognition. What is more, the same reports detail the establishment of MDC structures and that there is huge support for the MDC in these remote areas. Discussions with my colleagues elsewhere indicate a similar phenomenon throughout Zimbabwe. Perhaps even more significantly there are now widespread reports of rural and poor people countrywide stating, in the face of violence, that they now know how to vote and are simply waiting for election day.
The point is that whilst ZANU(PF) is slamming the stable door shut through violence, intimidation, abuse of the rule of law and devious “legal” measures, it is too late: the MDC horse has already bolted. And lest people think that intimidation will ultimately still win the day I should mention the following. Firstly, one must remember that in Matabeleland in the 1980s the people did not succumb to much greater intimidation by the 5 Brigade. Despite near genocide and boasting,in the media, of a huge swing to ZANU(PF), it did not win a single seat in the 1985 election in Matabeleland. Secondly, the intimidation strategy is not winning support for ZANU(PF) – it is only creating more enemies for itself.
Thirdly, a critical mass of political opinion has now been achieved – there is now a clear understanding amongst the overwhelming majority of Zimbabweans as to what the problems are and what is needed to solve them – and history in the form of the 1972 Pierce Commission, the 1979 election, the 1980 election (and even the 1985 election as it played out in Matabeleland) show what happens when a consensus emerges in the electorate. A new consensus has emerged, namely that change is needed and that the MDC offers the only way forward. If anything the ZANU(PF) engineered violence will have rammed that point across.
3. The penny has finally dropped in the international community’s mind
For years many of us in the human rights community and in the opposition have been speaking about the real nature of this tyrannical regime. Most of our cries have fallen on deaf ears. I can vividly recall arguing in the State Department in Washington in 1992 that pressure should be applied on the World Bank not to support the economic structural adjustment programme unless meaningful steps were taken to enhance democracy; I was laughed off. In the same year I wrote in the Financial Gazette that unless economic liberalisation was accompanied by political liberalisation ESAP would fail. The international community and even local business were not interested.
Even when the so called “land demonstrations” began the international media did not at first understand what it was all about. But the penny has finally dropped in the minds of the international community that this is a tyrannical regime that is determined to stay in power at any cost and which will cause immense damage to the region if not reigned in. In the last two weeks there has been a marked change in the way the international media has interpreted what is going on. That in turn is having a massive influence on domestic opinion in the region and in the West. That opinion is in turn now dominating how the problem is to be tackled politically. The point is that there is now massive antipathy towards the Mugabe regime and increasing sympathy for those trying to do something about the problem within Zimbabwe.
That has never been the case before. At worst there was, in the past, indifference to what was happening in Zimbabwe. At best there was abysmal misunderstanding. Now there is understanding and outrage in the international community, evidenced by the huge press contingent (the largest in any single country since the Gulf War) now resident in Zimbabwe. And whilst that contingent may grow tired and decline in number the problems of Zimbabwe will never again be treated in the same way they were prior to this crisis.
What has emerged in the course of the past week is that there is now a consensus between South Africa and nations in the EU as to what needs to be done in Zimbabwe. Whilst the ZANU(PF) controlled media portrayed the Victoria Falls summit as a triumph for Mugabe the lie to that was given in 3 ways. Firstly, it was strange that Mugabe, as the host and the senior “statesman”, did not speak at the post meeting press conference regarding issues that concerned him ie Zimbabwe. Secondly, if the meeting was such a triumph, then why was he so very glum at the conference? Indeed Mugabe was visibly angry at the meeting and I thought at the time it was because he had had the Riot Act read to him. Thirdly, we now know that he did in fact have the Riot Act read to him and that the quid pro quo for Southern African support for land reform was in the form of undertakings from him to hold free and fair elections, to invite international observers and to get the ZANU(PF) thugs off the farms. President Mbeki has now cancelled his State visit to Zimbabwe (a fact confirmed to me in Harare on the 28th April by a senior South African diplomat) – he will now only come to open Trade Fair, an undertaking he felt he should honour.
On Friday the 28th I met three High Commissioners from 1st world Commonwealth countries, the Ambassador of one of the leading EU countries, senior representatives from the United States Government and, as stated above, a senior ranking South African diplomat. I was astonished by the change in attitude towards the ZANU(PF) regime – suffice it to say that all referred to it as a corrupt, totalitarian government. They all had a clear understanding that if the current violence continues the elections will not be free and fair. All were desperately concerned about what is going on and listened intently to what the MDC believes should be done. All were keen to help in the run up to the elections and I think all will send observers and provide whatever resources are needed to assist in making the elections as fair as possible in the circumstances.
The point is that we are no longer alone. There is enormous international goodwill out there; Governments the world over are determined not to let ZANU(PF) get away with murder as it has in the past. Importantly the same Governments have a profound understanding now about the true nature of this regime and that the land invasions are about suppression of opposition rather than about land. They will not let the wool be pulled over their eyes any longer.
4. ZANU(PF) is increasingly divided
It is increasingly apparent that the ZANU(PF) election campaign is being spearheaded by the President himself and the likes of Hitler Hunzvi and that there are many in ZANU(PF) who are not at all happy with this turn of events. We know that in the week before the murders of farmers happened a majority in cabinet resolved to get the ZANU(PF) thugs off the farms – that is why Vice President Msika issued the statement he did ordering them off, only to be rebuffed by Mugabe on his return from Cuba. It is no coincidence that it was Minister Dabengwa who a few weeks earlier had made the same call as Msika – he, like Msika, is a former ZAPU member who was not responsible for the gross human rights abuses perpetrated against the people of Matabeleland in the 1980s. This week it was revealed in the London Times that Perence Shiri, the commander of the 5 Brigade in 1983 at the height of the Gukurahundi, is co-ordinating the invasion of farms and the accompanying violence. That fact will only make the likes of Dabengwa and other doves in cabinet even more alarmed. They know that there will be life after a defeat at the polls (that they will not face prosecution for crimes against humanity) and they do not want to get sucked into massive human rights abuses on the scale of what happened in the 1980s. Mugabe and Shiri on the other hand have nothing to lose.
Parliament dissolved by operation of the Constitution (it cannot be reconvened) on the 11th April and it is increasingly clear that Mugabe is determined to rule by Presidential decree. The advice this weekend that he will use the Presidential Powers Act to amend the Land Acquisition Act is evidence of that. But the very use of Presidential decrees at this juncture will alarm many within ZANU(PF) who believe that Mugabe has too much power as it is. The use of this decree will almost inevitably result in an even more serious Constitutional crisis than we face at present. The sense of unease within ZANU(PF) can only grow.
Even the army in recent weeks has shown that it is not prepared to follow ZANU(PF) blindly. The statement of Colonel Diye, the Army spokesman, on the 11th April, that the army will respect a democratic change in government, is highly significant. The previously held assumption that the army was just a branch of ZANU(PF) no longer holds good. The statement in itself reveals that not all in the army are happy with what is happening.
Thinking people in ZANU(PF) know that Mugabe’s actions are devastating the economy, an economy that they will have to deal with if the strategy works and ZANU(PF) is returned to power. They are also bright enough to know that they will have to heal the damage without international support, which they know will not be forthcoming in the event that the international community deems ZANU(PF) to have won by foul means, as will be the case if the current strategy continues. As the economy continues its freefall the divisions within ZANU(PF) can only grow. The only question is how long the sane people within ZANU(PF) will stay on board ship. Not all are prepared to destroy the country simply to avoid Truth and Justice Commissions and anti corruption enquiries (which is undoubtedly what is driving Mugabe et al to stay in power whatever the cost).
The point is that ZANU(PF) is simply not the same monolith it was. It is seriously divided against itself and as the economy melts down over the next few weeks its cracks will grow wider and wider.
5. We are in the majority
Despite all the violence and intimidation the fact remains that the overwhelming majority of Zimbabweans want change and are increasingly angry about the cynical exploitation of the land issue by Mugabe over the last few weeks. The findings of the Helen Suzman Foundation prior to the Referendum (including the finding that the most important issue in the minds of over 80% of the population is the state of the economy) simply will not go away. Intimidated people may not speak openly about what concerns them but their concerns do not vanish. If anything people are even more concerned now about the state of the economy and blame Mugabe even more for its failure. The link between Mugabe’s irresponsible behaviour and the quickening collapse of the economy is now more apparent than ever before. In other words the number of people who blame Mugabe and co for the disastrous state of the economy have grown dramatically since the Referendum.
And in one of the greatest ironies of the campaign Mugabe, Hunzvi and Professor Moyo have done more than anyone else to promote the MDC as a viable alternative. During the $50 million Constitutional Commission’s “Yes Campaign” in the run up to the Referendum Professor Moyo was at pains to establish a link between the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) and the MDC, referring to it as the NCA/MDC alliance. The NCA is of course in truth an umbrella body representing many different political parties, churches and NGOs. However Professor Moyo’s own propaganda fixed in the mind of the electorate that the NCA and the MDC were one and the same and as a result the MDC got virtually all the credit for the Referendum victory (among political parties that is).
Since the Referendum Mugabe, Hunzvi and Moyo have directed all their venom towards the MDC and whilst MDC rallies are never covered on the ZBC the attacks on it, to the exclusion of all other opposition parties, are covered every day. As a result ZANU(PF) has itself unwittingly promoted the MDC as the only force opposed to it which is capable of bringing change. In other words the vast majority of Zimbabweans now feel that only the MDC has the will or the ability to satisfy their desires for fundamental change.
The point is that the dissatisfaction felt by an overwhelming majority of Zimbabweans has if anything grown in recent weeks and that majority has coalesced around the MDC. The concerns will not go away, the fact they are felt by a majority of Zimbabweans will not go away and the fact that ZANU(PF) is held responsible will not go away no matter what violence is rained on the Zimbabwean electorate. If the majority of Zimbabweans agreed with the violence and Mugabe’s tactics then we would be in trouble as a nation. However there is massive hope in the reality that it is only a tiny, rabid and, increasingly, deranged minority which is directing the current mayhem.
6. There is ancient wisdom which provides hope
The prophet Isaiah nearly three thousand years ago wrote of the consequences faced by political leaders when they violate God’s most fundamental principles of governance. Isaiah 1:21-23 describes a corrupt and unjust regime very similar to that experienced by Zimbabwe – a regime that is ruled by murderers, rebels, companions of thieves, people who love bribes and chase after gifts, people who do not defend the cause of the fatherless and who have no compassion for the cause of widows.
In Isaiah 1:31 it is written:
“The mighty man will become tinder and his work a spark; both will burn together, with no one to quench the fire.”
That is the inevitable consequence for all rulers who fall into the category mentioned above. History is replete with many examples of despotic leaders who have eventually been undone not, ironically, by the works of others but by their own works. This century alone we have the striking example of Hitler who built up a powerful regime only to destroy it all by invading Poland and Russia. And in Zimbabwe it is Mugabe’s deployment of troops into the Congo, Mugabe’s corruption, Mugabe’s disrespect for the rule of law which have acted as the spark. He, once a mighty man, is now merely tinder and ZANU(PF) just a shell.
Further along in Isaiah (40:23-24) it is written:
“He brings princes to naught and reduces the rulers of this world to nothing. No sooner are they planted, no sooner are they sown, no sooner do they take root in the ground, than he blows on them and they wither, and a whirlwind sweeps them away like chaff.”
I have no doubt that what is happening in Zimbabwe today is the whirlwind of change. Whilst it is terrifying being in the middle of this whirlwind we need to remind ourselves that it will not last for ever and positive change will result. In other words the process of what is unfolding in Zimbabwe will not stop and will move to its inevitable conclusion no matter what Machiavellian schemes are devised by the corrupt ruling elite in Zimbabwe.
The way ahead
In sounding an optimistic note I must stress that I still anticipate that violence and abuse of human rights will continue and possibly even increase as ZANU(PF) becomes increasingly desperate. After all ZANU(PF) has nothing else to offer the electorate and if it gives up on its violent campaign it will most certainly lose the election by a wide margin. Mugabe knows this very well and for this reason will keep intimidating the electorate right up to the time of the election. What then are we to do?
Martin Luther King, the great American civil rights activist in the 1960s, provides guidance:
“When evil men plot, good men must plan. When evil men burn and bomb, good men must build and bind. Where evil men would seek to perpetuate an unjust status quo, good men must seek to bring into being a real order of justice.”
That is the task facing all of us. I have no doubt that the international community will continue to do its bit: international pressure is mounting on ZANU(PF) all the time. It is up to Zimbabweans however to play their part as well. They can do so in the following ways.
I am appalled by the rumours flying around Zimbabwe. Whilst I have no doubt that some have been started by the CIO to induce a sense of panic, especially amongst minorities, many are spread by otherwise responsible people who take no steps to verify the rumour before spreading it further and who, frankly, should know better. It is critically important that those who are committed to democratic change do not fall for this particularly insidious tactic. In essence do not start or spread rumours.
I am appalled by reports of people packing their bags and making hasty plans to emigrate. Whilst I understand the sense of panic, the sense that there is no one to turn to, the sense that one cannot even turn to the Police for assistance, the sense that Zimbabwe is spiralling out of control, I believe that now, more than ever, is the time for calm and resolute behaviour which recognises the fact that our fears are shared by the vast majority of Zimbabweans. If the panic was based on an understanding that the majority were happy with events then there would be cause for packing bags and getting the first flight out. But this is not the case. If anything this is a test of the commitment of minority races and black professionals (the two groups of people most likely to flee) to Zimbabwe and to fellow Zimbabweans. The vast majority of Zimbabweans simply cannot flee and that includes the aged, widows and the poor. Are we just going to abandon all these people? And if altruism is not a compelling enough argument are we going to give up all that has been built up simply because we have been held to ransom by a few thugs for a few months? No – Zimbabwe is too precious a country to abandon in this way and, what is more, we are far too close to marvellous and profound democratic change to give up the fight at this juncture.
To quote Martin Luther King again:
“Freedom has always been an expensive thing. History is fit testimony to the fact that freedom is rarely gained without sacrifice and self-denial.”
Zimbabweans! Stand firm and remain determined to play your role in achieving democratic change!
David Coltart
Secretary, Legal Affairs
MDC