Analysis of the election results so far
It is with considerable, but not unreserved, optimism that I write today because the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) has finally completed the announcement of the House of Assembly results. The final tally is historic because for the first time in 28 years Zanu PF has lost control of the House of Assembly. Of the 210 seats contested Zanu PF won 97 seats, the MDC (Tsvangirai) 99, the MDC (Mutambara) 10 and an independent 1. The remaining 3 seats will require by elections because candidates contesting those seats died (of natural causes) during the election. All 3 are likely to be won by either the MDC (Tsvangirai) or ourselves, the MDC (Mutambara).
The tortuous process implemented by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) this week to announce the results is unacceptable. Four days after the closure of the polls we are nowhere near receiving all of the results. I knew at 4am on Sunday morning, 9 hours after the polls had closed, that I had won the Khumalo Senatorial seat. I was formally declared a duly elected member of the Senate at 12.30pm Sunday by the Constituency Elections Officer, in terms of the Electoral Act. I won by such a wide majority (1944 votes) that there was never any prospect of the result being challenged. Despite that, four days on my election has still not been announced by the ZEC.
The same applies to the all important Presidential race. The Herald curiously appeared to have the results of this race yesterday because it announced confidently that no candidate is likely to get the absolute majority required to win. The MDC (Tsvangirai) responded by announcing its own result, based on original polling station returns, giving Morgan Tsvangirai an absolute majority of 50,3%. I cannot comment on how accurate that is and note that Robyn Dixon writing in the LA Times this morning says that the MDC (Tsvangirai) made an error in calculation and that on their own figures Morgan Tsvangirai’s tally is less than the 50% required.
However whether the final tally in the Presidential race is 49% or 50,3% this is in fact irrelevant because all that lower figure means is that we will have to wait a further 3 weeks to see the end of Robert Mugabe’s rule. It is obvious that all democrats must rally around the candidacy of Morgan Tsvangirai in the run off and if we all do then Robert Mugabe stands to be annihilated and indeed humiliated. Not only will he face a single opponent but all the momentum is now with the MDC (I use that word in the collective sense). Robert Mugabe has already gerrymandered, has already given out all the taxpayers’ tractors and ploughs and has already tried to use food as weapon. In other words he has nothing further to bribe or intimidate the electorate with. They rejected these methods in the general election and there is no doubt they will reject them even more forcefully in the run off.
However I hope that there will now be some sober reflection in the MDC (Tsvangirai). The sad reality is that their failure to agree on a coalition has undermined the opposition’s victory. In at least 8 House of Assembly constituencies we handed victory to Zanu PF by dividing the vote. In several others we only narrowly avoided doing the same again. At the same time many of the opposition’s best MPs such as Gibson Sibanda, Welshman Ncube, Paul Temba Nyathi, and Trudy Stevenson lost and will not be in the new Parliament. We have lost their experience, integrity and expertise – qualities we will sorely need as we seek to rebuild Zimbabwe and to turn Parliament into a genuinely democratic institution.
But most seriously in the Presidential vote the failure to agree the coalition agreement, so painstakingly negotiated by many of us, has opened up the possibility of a rerun which would have been impossible had the 7% of voters who voted for the MDC and the candidate it endorsed, Simba Makoni, voted for Morgan Tsvangirai.
In short the MDC (Tsvangirai) must acknowledge that it has enjoyed a pyrrhic victory in many respects. All is not lost as we can still win the Presidential election in the rerun. However it is now incumbent upon the MDC (Tsvangirai) to build a broad and effective coalition. For this to be achieved it must be prepared to bring into its team some of those who lost in the House of Assembly election and who have so much to offer Zimbabwe. It must also be prepared to accommodate some of the legitimate policy concerns expressed by those of us in the MDC (Mutambara).
Senator David Coltart
Bulawayo
3 April 2008.
April 3rd, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Fantastic result David - congratulations! Now I am really on tenterhooks. Cannot imagine what it’s like for you, the family and all your supporters. Thinking of you, keep up the herculaneum efforts I know it will all be rewarded.
All my very best wishes - Peter Stephens (Nicola nee Huberts husband)
April 3rd, 2008 at 1:14 pm
I am very saddened by this posting. The words reveal a divisiveness and an arrogance that we really don’t need. Is it not time for some humility? that there should now be some sober reflection in BOTH the MDC (Tsvangirai) AND the MDC (Mutambara)…. and that: The sad reality is that OUR failure to agree on a coalition has undermined the opposition’s victory?
Looking at the votes Simba Makoni got in the election, and the votes in Bulawayo where MDC (Mutambara) did not do well, a fairer assessment might be that the people – i.e. the voters not the MPs/not the top Mutambara people – wanted MDC (Tsvangirai), and that perhaps it was the MDC (Mutambara) that erred in its decision on who to team up with?
Further, why not admit that: the MDC (Tsvangirai) AND the MDC (Mutambara) NEED TO acknowledge that it IS a pyrrhic victory in many respects.
and that: THE PEOPLE can still win the Presidential election in the rerun. However it is now incumbent upon the MDC (Tsvangirai) AND all those who oppose the old ZANU-PF regime to build a broad and effective coalition.
For this to be achieved WE MAY NEED to bring into THE team
some of those who lost in the House of Assembly election and who have
so much to offer Zimbabwe. WE MAY also NEED TO be prepared to RECONSIDER the legitimate policy concerns expressed by ALL.
Please, ALL OF US, let’s take time to reflect and to express ourselves more carefully.
April 3rd, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Hi Dave
I have found 10 occurances where the split gave 10 gifts to ZanuPF (the last one in Zvishavane Ngezi where 2 MDC MT’s split the vote!):
Mashonaland Central
Mazowe South
ZanuPF Zinyemba 4109
MDC Tsvangirai Chitenga 4052
MDC Chitengu 1401
Mashonaland West
Magunje
ZanuPF Ndambakuwa 4587
MDC Tsvangirai Chambati 4264
MDC Murodza 1607
Matabeleland North
Lupane West
ZanuPF Khumalo 3311
MDC Ncube 3044
MDC Tsvangirai Ndlovu 2005
Matabeleland North
Nkayi North
ZanuPF Nyoni 4634
MDC Moyo 4234
MDC Tsvangirai 1075
Midlands
Chirumanzu
ZanuPF Maramba 4631
MDC Tsvangirai Chimahwinya 4219
MDC Tsvangirai Hotera 1319
MDC Munhende 1021
Midlands
Chiwundura
ZanuPF Chivamba 5864
MDC Tsvangirai Zvidvai 5320
MDC Chibvongodze 816
MDC Marimazhira 614
Midlands
Gokwe
ZanuPF Mangami 5570
MDC Tsvangirai Ganyani 4533
MDC Penduka 1275
Midlands
Gokwe Kana
ZanuPF Ngwenya 5837
MDC Tsvangirai Muteto 4898
MDC Gwatiringa 1456
Midlands
Vungu
ZanuPF Madubeko 4287
MDC Tsvangirai Moyo 2518
MDC Gasela 2160
Midlands
Zvishavane Ngezi
ZanuPF Matshalaga 4632
MDC Tsvangirai Mbalekwa 3786
MDC Tsvangirai Timveos 3133
April 3rd, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Well written article and my heartfelt congratulations Senator about the nomination. However I need to point out that Gibson, Welshman, Arthur and Paul Themba lost because of their myopic self glory they were seeking to contest against MDC (Tsvangirai) candidates. We all know that MDC (Mutambara) will eventually disappear as it will never mount any real opposition, worse still now that the top cabal was ‘annihilated’ in these elections. The truth of the matter is that Mr Tsvangirai’s team won because of the formidable courage that Mr Tsvangirai showed against such adversity of the tyrannical Mugabe and his thugs. To then extend an olive leaf to Arthur and his cabal, who personnaly attacked Mr Tsvangirai (recall the academic pygmie nonsense) will be unacceptable. MDC (Tsvangirai) has enough and excellent people who will steer Zimbabwe from the current doldrums that we are in.
April 3rd, 2008 at 2:14 pm
I WILL AGREE WITH WHAT U EXPLAINED ABOVE .TRULY THE POTENTIAL IN PRICILLA ,JOB(WHAT HE DID FOR MDC INMASINGO ETC)AND MANY OTHERS IS NOT RELECTED IN THE 1000 OR LESS VOTES THEY RECIEVED. BUT I THINK FAILURE OF THE COALITION OF MDC ,THE RESULTING FAILURE OF THESE EXPERTS IN THE ELECTION MUST TEACH ALL US A LESSON INTERMS OF TAKING BREAKING AWAY AS AN OPTION IF PEOPLE ARE HAVING QURRELS WITHIN THE PARTY.
April 3rd, 2008 at 2:31 pm
I detect a thread of sourness in your writing David. Are you a bad loser and has your judgement been somewhat remiss? You are almost blaming Tsvangirai for the loss of your colleagues. Maybe you should consider the reasons why the electorate rejected them. You may say it’s a pity but the electorate must be respected. They have obviously rejected the course your party took. Let that be a lesson to you and I sorely hope you don’t play hardball behind the scenes and victim in the public arena from hereon.
April 3rd, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Congratulations on your election to the Senate.
April 3rd, 2008 at 4:42 pm
I cannot agree more with your reflection, but I am not concerned with the lost seats caused by the split. The MDC Mutambara thought they had the support of the majority with regard to the participation in the last senate elections. That turned out not to be the case because the majority remained loyal to Tsvangirai, so much that they voted the engineers of the split out of parliament. The smaller MDC should be prepared to swallow its pride and admit it was wrong with regard to the will of the people. They should join hands with their popular counterparts, with a few or no conditions attached.It goes without saying that people who voted for MDC Mutambara or makoni will vote for Tsvangirai in the run-off, with or without the blessing of the party leaders. We all want to see the back of Robert at what ever cost, even our beliefs.
Tanaka, Germany
April 3rd, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Dear David
I agree with you up to a point. Not knowing the circumstances of the failure of the two MDC formations to come to an agreement before the elections I feel that both formations must take the blame. Mutambara was on record when he came to join you as saying he would never stand against Tsvangirai and devide the vote. He however openly endorsed Makoni thus achieving this nevetheless. I was never able to see the lodgic of your formation in aligning with Makoni a guy who openly said he was ZANU PF throughout his campaign. While I agree with you and mourn the loss of people like Trudy and Paul Themba Nyathi who I have very high regard for I would hope that you will actively help the two formations to get over their egos so that we can have a trully democratic country and that
April 3rd, 2008 at 6:38 pm
Dave - why is it MDC(Tsvangirai)’s “fault” that the votes were split? I believe it’s the fault of MDC(Mutambara). Your formation has always had minimal public support, though you all seem to have been unaware of that until the election results came out. Surely, as the “weaker” formation, it was your responsibility to stand down where you felt it was necessary? It was also your formation that made the fatal mistake of endorsing Makoni, so it is your formation’s fault that your supporters didn’t vote for Tsvangirai.
Will you put defeated candidates such as those you mention into the by-elections? Do you plan to discuss this beforehand with the other formation? It will be very silly to have two MDC candidates in those constituencies now that the picture is quite different.
April 3rd, 2008 at 7:05 pm
there probably will be a rerun - but - but - just like the reaction to the loss of the referendum so ZANU will go all out with violence and rigging in the next few weeks. How will teh MDC stop a desperate ZANU from rigging a rerun?
April 3rd, 2008 at 7:14 pm
[...] is unacceptable! Can’t they at least announce the candidates that they have already sworn in? We know by now that drip-feeding results isn’t an issue for the ZEC so why the wait [...]
April 4th, 2008 at 2:30 am
Its disappointing that you have put all blame for the lost votes on MDC (Tsvangirayi). This position would not have existed had MDC (Mutambara) accepted a lower proportion in Matebeland during the failed coalition negotiations. In addition to this the MDC (Mutambara) chose to endorse Makoni (who had little grassroots support) which only served to further split votes for Tsvangirayi.
Both sides should accept responsibility for this missed opportunity. When will you guys stop this balme game and poloticking and learn to put national interests before personal squabbles.
April 4th, 2008 at 6:38 am
Hi David
Congratulations on your re-election!
A great post, full of calm optimism and a degree of wisdom that one hopes will be heeded.
I thought it was very poignant that the ‘Random Quote’ today is the Kipling “”If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs..”
Not such a random quote after all.
April 4th, 2008 at 7:03 am
Well done on your election.
As a matter of interest … do you not think it would be been better for the common good (to oust ZANU pf) that the divide had not been done till after the elections, the amount of seats etc lost due to “in fighting” are xeveral, and these would have possibly provided more seats and then after the result then the party should have factionalised.
Or is there a legal issue here that prevented this? I am not politically inclined to either faction just trying to work out the silly logic that could have ensured a better defeat of the tyrants
April 4th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
I hate to say I told you so but Im going to say it anyway
you see MT is going to get less than 50%of the presidential vote and even if you AGO guys dont support him in the run off he is going to WIN. You are going to have 9 parliamentary seats and maybe 2 senate. He will be president and you will either join ZANUPF or merge with him without any conditions whatsoever or fade into oblivion. Now tell me which is which who is being foolish you for saying MT should join Simba ( who got 7% of the vote) whom you guys followed blindly without any conditions after haggling to the death against MT or Morgan for realising he is the most relevant politician at tune with the masses. If I where you I would be man enough to just say no ifs no buts we made a mistake lets take our few positions left(most of which you won because MT did not campaign in those areas due to his plane being impounded) and join Morgan before we loose everything altogether
April 4th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
What happens in regard to the Presidential Appointees to parliament - I am now completely confused. Were there 6 imposed MP’s? Presumably, when Morgan is installed as President, he will be able to utilise this same law (unjust though it was) to appoint some of those who had their seats stolen by ZEC’s creative accounting!
I realise that people who are in Mutambara’s wing are unlikely to get selected to this group, but I hope that Morgan will be bigger than that and will see potential and will appoint at least one or two. I may be making a huge assumption here, but I thought perhaps Trudy would be a good person to appoint as Minister of Education. (Mind you, she is the only qualified teacher among the MDC people that I know of, but there are sure to be many others.)
By the way, congratulations on your election as Senator - I will pray for you.
Heard today that the Reserve Bank released new 25 and 50 Million dollar bills - wow, that is so presumptuous. I can remember when the RBZ released the Z$100 note, and it was a big deal. Now, they are not even in circulation any more.
John
April 5th, 2008 at 8:04 am
I am so worried about the recent comments by Mutasa that they are going to demand a recount in 16 seats. What is MDC doing about this? Who keeps custody of those ballot boxes? How safe are they to tempering? Isn’t there a probability of the ballot boxes being stuffed with more ballots and them a re-count demanded?
????
April 5th, 2008 at 8:29 am
More Details:
The ballot boxes are not secured heavily. They were mainly stored in local government halls. The disaster comes to the seals. The keys to the ballot box were put in an envelope which was then sealed on top of the ballot box. Unfortunately, some election agents, including those from MDC had not received enough eduction on how to sign a ballot box and were signing directly on the envelope and not on the seal. This would mean you can break the seal without tempering with the signatures. The seals on the other sides of the ballot boxes can be broken, marks wiped out completely and new seals put once the tempering of ballots is complete. The seals on the sides did not have signatures. The serial numbers can be reproduced so that you do not detect anything.
What the CIO were simply doing was to look for vulnerable ballot boxes, were signatures were directly on top of the envelope containing the keys, and not on the seal securing the envelope.
April 5th, 2008 at 11:54 pm
I have been following the elections via TV reports, online and through talking to people in Zimbabwe and I am not surprised at all that the results have been delayed and that Mugabe is already talking about a run-off. His reign has to come to and end now. Zimbabwe needs someone in place who will put in place effective measures to get the country back on its feet.
April 7th, 2008 at 7:05 am
I am concerned about the direction the country is taking in this tense standoff between Mugabe and Tsvangirai. I somehow agree partly with you that MT has to form a broad and effective coalition but I strongly feel that the coalition is bound to run into serious problems from the deeply rooted Mugabe and ZANU PF thuggery in the army, police,CIO,the judicial and other gvt arms and parastatals. There are fears in these organizations which will need to be addressed and I think MT and the coalition, without ZANU PF may not effectively address them without provoking a backlash from those who will feel their personal interests are under threat. I think you will also agree with me that the MDC-MT
has shown some tendencies of inmaturity and selfishness which stood in the way of a united front with MDC-AM. Iam sure some of them are dreaming high these days with excitement without regard of the needs of the electorate. This is is what I suggest to you as MDC-AM. The party has ten seats it won but has emerged as powerful in that you have the leverage to influence policy. In this regard I think it will be prudent upon your party to put forward demands/proposals to both ZANU PF and MDC-MT. The proposals should be based on the premise of the failed South African talks. Secondly, that for a period of time say 90 days, Mugabe to preside over some arrangement in which a position of prime minister be established, that position will share some responsibilities with the president. MT could be prime minister. After 90 days, Mugabe retires in a lavish ceremony, with a garantees that he will not be prosecuted. Parliament will nominate a successor who will work with MT to come up with a new constitution and repeal all the repressive laws, democratize
electoral laws, depoliticize the army, police,CIO, judicial and other gvt institutions. This could take a period of lets say 5 yrs, by which Mugabe will be history, God willing, he is 84 anywhere.I sincerely believe, that this approach will prevent MDC MT turning into another ZANU and will allow a smooth transition from this directorship to a democratic era. This is the time to set aside selfish ambitions for the good of the country and I feel MDC-AM has that chance to push for fundamental and far reaching policy changes in the country. I feel MDC-AM should look at the broader picture , not only removing Mugabe but of ensuring that there is true change. You are few, but powerful, by the way, well done in winning yr seat.
I am not sure whether I articulated my ideas well, I will be more than willing to discuss them with you, all I need is your response and invitation if you think it will be necessary.
April 7th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
mr coltart, sir i read your article and concur with you on all points. it is absolutely imperative that mdc (tsv) realise how far zimbabwe has come. no one can afford to let all this work be for nothing. this is the dawn of a new day for zimbabwe, a united mdc stands to gain a lot more as a party and for the people of zim than a divided one. we should all look forward, forget our transgressions and unite for the future of this great nation, it’s about time zim was back on that pedestal as the breadbasket of sadc, as a shining light for democracy. at a time like this nothing can be more important than to send a clear message to zanu pf, nothing will stop this movement, it has come so far, it is time for zim to be led by competent, educated, democratic and unstained senators. it is a time for every zimbabwean to stand up and smile, it is time to be proud of our nation, time to re-build but most importantly a time for mdc to stand united.
thank you
April 9th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Hello, i feel very unhappy and totally depressed by the way things are done or regulated in Zimbabwe.YES,Mogabe ruled 28 years but that does not mean He owns Zimbabwe.for the past centuaries we heard of powerful and very sturbon leaders that ruled with force and killed many people during the time, but in this type of intervals there would be no man to claim power undermining the rights of God’s people.the need for betterment shall be done. it does not mean i hate mogabe, but if he is tired he must either sleep or resign.i’m a south african resident, but i’m saying higher , higher with victory MDC leaders. LETS FACE TOMORROW WITH POWERFUL MINDS,THOUGHTS AND AFRICA SHALL NOT BE THE SAME.GIGAMADE
April 18th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
CONGRATULATIONS SENATOR COLTART I WISH YOU ALL THE BEST CONTINUE WITH THE MAGNIFICENT WORK YOU ARE DOING. GOD BLESS YOU
April 22nd, 2008 at 8:40 pm
For those of us with some sort of tie to Zimbabwe, the ongoing elections there have garnered our close attention. I must confess that mine is not the closest attention that you will find; yet, nevertheless I know where to go to find the info I need.
David Coltart has long been active in the political arena in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe and his website holds a wealth of information for those who desire insight into the ongoing struggle in that country.
His post from two days ago, “Analysis of the election results so far,” shed just the right amount of light on the situation so that we who are outside observers are able to see the intricate subtleties of Zimbabwean politics. Besides, who better to get info from than a current Zimbabwean Senator.
Our prayers go out to those is Zim. Here’s to a quick resolution of the election.
Blessings,
theMK